WASHINGTON – Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, who was in an unexpectedly close race with Michele Tafoya for retiring Sen. Tina Smith’s seat, may have surged ahead of her rival in the days before next week’s election.
A New York Times/Siena poll released Wednesday showed that respondents favored the Democrat Flanagan over former sportscaster Tafoya 54% to 40%.
The poll also showed Sen. Amy Klobuchar running far ahead of her Republican rival in the governor’s race, state House Speaker Lisa Demuth, 56% to 38%.
The poll said Flanagan’s wide lead comes from many demographics and that she has pulled ahead of Tafoya among both younger and older voters, white and non-white voters and those who are college educated and those who are not.
Flanagan also led Tafoya on a number of issues, including the cost of living and foreign wars and even immigration, an issue that typically favors Republicans.
Yet the poll also showed Tafoya’s efforts to tie Flanagan to fraud may have caused some damage to the lieutenant governor. Poll respondents ranked concerns about corruption and fraud second only to the economy in terms of issues driving their decisions at the ballot booth.
Vice President JD Vance planned to fan the flames of voter concerns of fraud in the state with a trip to St. Cloud on Friday with other members of his “White House Task Force to Eliminate Fraud.”
But the visit to the state was abruptly cancelled just hours after it was announced on Thursday. The White House did not give a reason.
The New York Times/Siena poll differed sharply from polls conducted in September and earlier this month that showed Flanagan leading Tafoya by much less and even running neck-and-neck with her rival.
In an interview on Fox News, Tafoya called the latest poll “a huge outlier.”
There is a chance the New York Time/Siena poll could be inaccurate. It polled a relatively small group of Minnesota voters — only 752 registered voters. It also has a large margin of error, plus-or-minus 3.9% to 4.2%.
And the New York Times’ chief political analyst, Nate Cohn, himself cast some doubt on his company’s poll results in Minnesota, saying it may have underestimated Republican strength.
“We may look back and say this was the canary in the coal mine — something like a 2026 equivalent of the Selzer poll showing Kamala Harris ahead in neighboring Iowa in 2024,” Cohn wrote. “In hindsight (and even at the time), that result was clearly a warning sign that pollsters were struggling to reach white working-class voters rather than any indication of Democratic strength.”
Cohn said Minnesota’s failure to register voters by party makes it difficult for pollsters to get a good read of public sentiment. But he concluded that “the poll may not be as far off as one might usually guess for a big outlier.”
“This race might not be a real battleground,” he said.
Taking the gloves off
Flanagan may have found some traction in the closing days of the campaign.
She has held a rally in Duluth with Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and has campaigned with Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn.; Rep. Pramila Jayapal, R-Wash.; and former Transportation Secretary and former Democratic presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg.
While Flanagan’s main attack on Tafoya is to link her to President Donald Trump and his policies, Tafoya’s narrative focused on promoting independence from the president, and even the GOP.
And Trump may have undermined that strategy.
Trump has endorsed Tafoya twice, urged Minnesota Republicans to get to the polls to vote for her and insinuated he’d interfere in Minnesota’s election if she is not declared a winner on the evening of Nov. 3.
“The only way she can lose is if they cheat by playing games with the ballots as they come in,” he wrote on Truth Social. “We can’t allow that to happen.”
Tafoya said she would abide by the results of the election. But the damage may have been done.
Nevertheless, the prospect of a close race has prompted the candidates to remove their gloves.
Flanagan’s campaign criticized Tafoya for comments made on a podcast she established after she left broadcasting NFL games.
In 2023, Tafoya criticized Lisa Guerrero, a former “Monday Night Football” reporter who wrote a memoir describing the sexism she experienced in TV sports and the miscarriage she suffered while reporting a game.
Tafoya called Guerrero “an attention seeking drama queen” who “was not tough enough.”
Meanwhile, Tafoya took issue about how Flanagan’s wealth grew while working in public office and on a lieutenant governor’s salary of $129,000 a year.
According to her financial disclosures, Flanagan and her husband have net worth of between $990,000 and $2.7 million.
Flanagan cried foul in a release that said her wealth increased after the death of her mother, who had been the recipient of an inheritance from her aunt.
“My mom and Auntie Peggy were two of the most important people in my life,” Flanagan said. “I lost them a year and a half apart, and they left me what they had.”
Meanwhile, Tafoya, who is married to Mark Vandersall, a private wealth advisor, reported on her disclosures that she and her husband’s assets were valued between about $17 million and a little more than $33 million.
An inexpensive race
This midterm is the most expensive in history with $11.2 billion spent a week before Election Day, surpassing the 2024 election which included $3.2 billion spent on the presidential race.
The costliest Senate race is the more than $500 million spent on the Texas contest between Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican State Attorney General Ken Paxton.
The record-breaking spending is a result of a political environment that gives Democrats an opportunity to seize the U.S. Senate from Republican control. To accomplish that, Democrats would have to flip four seats.
Yet the race between Flanagan and Tafoya is among the cheapest Senate contests in the nation.
According to the Federal Election Commission (FEC), Flanagan had spent about $11 million and Tafoya nearly $9 million on their campaigns as of Oct. 14.
Both campaigns have also benefited by about $2 million each worth of help from third parties that have paid for ads and canvassing.
The modest spending by outside groups, and the lack of spending by the national parties on the race, is another indication that Minnesota’s U.S. Senate race is not a battleground.
In other news:
▪️Reporter Claire Carlson wrote that residents of Hastings are fired up about the rising cost of cleaning PFAS in their water. PFAS are a group of highly toxic chemicals used in everyday products like cookware and clothing.
▪️State Government Reporter Matthew Blake took a close look at the surprisingly tight race between Attorney General Keith Ellison and his Republican opponent, Ron Schutz.
▪️Another race that is much closer than expected and could help Democrats take over the U.S. House is playing out in southern Minnesota. That’s where Rep. Brad Finstad, R-1st District, is fending off Democratic challenger Jake Johnson in a race that has attracted millions of dollars from the national parties and other outside groups.
▪️And Metro reporter Trevor Mitchell wrote that juvenile justice is driving the race for Hennepin County attorney.
Please keep your comments, and any questions, coming. I’ll try my best to respond. I can be reached at aradelat@minnpost.com.
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